Monday, 1 March 2010

A tale of two polls - five and seven point gaps

We're all in danger of going poll mad. Two new ones tonight.

ComRes for the Independent - Con 37 (-1), Lab 32 (+1)

YouGov for the Sun - Con 39 (+4), Lab 32 (-3)

The first, Comres for the Independent, gives the Tories a five point lead but that would still leave Labour as the largest party

It's the narrowest margin in the monthly ComRes poll for The Independent since December 2008.

The figures, if the election were held tomorrow, would give Labour 294 seats, the Tories 277, the Liberal Democrats 46 and others 33.

Labour would still be 32 seats short of a majority and would have to rely on the Liberal Democrats for support in a hung parliament.

A YouGov poll for the Sun shows the Tories with a seven point lead. The same polling organisation showed a two point gap between the parties on Sunday, with the Tories on 37% and Labour on 35%.

Labour won in 2005 with just over 35% of the vote but the Tories only managed 30% and the Lib Dems a bit over 9% in that outing.

The SNP have been on pointing out that their reversal of fortune in the Ipsos/Mori poll for the Scotsman is actually a huge improvement on their standing at the 2005 election.

Here's their read out of Westminster voting intentions (change since 2005 General Election in brackets):

Lab: 34% (-6)

SNP: 32% (+14)

Con: 17% (+1)

Lib Dem: 12% (-11)

Other: 5%

Enough figures for one night.

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