Post debate Nelson provocative as usual

I disagree with Fraser Nelson on so many things but ever so often he hits the nail on the head.

I had expected his blog - "Osborne's silent victory" - to be a paean in defence of the indefensible. the accepted political wisdom is that Osborne didn't do well yesterday at all and did not shine in the debate.

But as Fraser rightly points out neither did he make a fool of himself and that is, in its own way, an away win. Unpersuaded voters might not think him the demon oik that Labour want to portray him as.

It also reminds me that there could be a difference between the developing media narrative of this campaign - tightening polls, underdog Brown fights back, Tories not assured, hung parliament in the final act - and reality.

Some of the commentators today are still writing about tightening polls when in fact they are opening up again.

All of the plot lines above may be played out but something quite different might be taking place in the country