A Yougov poll of the regions last night showed the parties fighting each other to a standstill in Scotland.
The poll of just over 800 people showed Labour on Labour on 38%, the SNP on 24%, Conservatives on 17% and Lib Dem on 16%.
On that outcome the parties would come out with almost the same share of seats as the 2005 election.
Labour have on 40 MPs, assuming they regain Glasgow East, and the SNP could go back up to 7 MPs if they gain Ochill and South Perthshire though Labour’s Gordon Banks is favourite to hold the seat.
The Lib Dems would have 11 seats and the Tories would be stuck on one. Same old, same old.
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4 days ago
"the SNP could go back up to 7 MPs if they gain Ochill and South Perthshire though Labour’s Gordon Banks is favourite to hold the seat."
ReplyDeleteThis is rubbish. I will be kind to you and point out that the longest odds about the SNP for this seat are 8/11 on, and the shortest odds about a Labour win are 2/1 against.
Couldn't you be bothered to check this
or are you just spinning in Record style even if this is just your personal blog?
YouGov has a very poor record in Scotland having just had to admit they have had their weightings wrong since 2007 (easy to check on the YouGov website where they admitted as much).
ReplyDeleteAdmittedly they tweaked their SNP/Labour weighting decreasing the Labour and increasing the SNP weighting but that leaves it open to question whether they tweaked it sufficiently or correctly. Unfortunately it's been some time since the last poll by a different company (Ipsos-Mori) which showed results very much different than YouGov. So we'll have to wait for the election, most likely, to see if they have it right.
Banks is not favourite to hold his seat! Also SNP are favourite to take Dundee West. As Tories are favourites to take Dumfries&Galloway and also Roxburgh&Berwick.Oh and Labour are favourite to take back Dunfermline West!
ReplyDeleteTake a trip down to the bookies or check out the bookies online! Money just does not talk it screams young man!