Monday, 22 February 2010
Chingford polecat looking for answers
Waiting for my three minutes of Caledonian fame on Newsnight Scotland to debate today's political shennanigans and their polling impact with the psephologist's psephologist, Professor John Curtice.
Browsing the blogs I came across Norman Tebbit's take on Michael Heseltine's take on the latest opinion polls (hang in here).
Hezza, in a move we all think was a ploy to frighten wavering Tory voters into supporting Cameron, warned that the Tories couldn't win an election outright.
That doesn't please Lord Tebbit who thinks that a Euro-sceptic, hard right Tory party (that's the one behind the curtain in every shot you see of Cameron) would make more headway.
He says: "I think Michael Heseltine owes us all not only a betting tip, but also a better explanation of why he thinks what should be the favourite for a runaway win against the most clapped out old nag ever to be entered in the General Election Stakes is not in better form."
He's right - the Tories should be home and dry by now but they're not. An ICM poll in the Guardian tomorrow has them down to 37% tomorrow, Labour only up one from it's new plateau to 31%.
On a universal swing that's hung parliament territory, with Labour 25seats behind the Tories. But the marginals, where the Tories Ashcroft money and the effort has gone, might tell a different story.
But then the role of UKIP, which could shave enough Tory votes to save Labour skins has to be taken into account too. That could make all the difference in East Renfrewshire and Dumfries. These right wing Tories, tempted to go Euro-sceptic, are the people Heseltine was appealing to on Sunday. It's going to be fascinating and Tebbit, who recommended that voters go Euro-sceptic in last years' EU election adds another twist of intrigue.
"I was glad to hear from my one-time supporter in Chingford, aasvogel, but sad that he like so many others has been driven to go over to UKIP. I understand why, and nearer to polling day I will offer my advice to voters… but not just yet."
What a tease Lord Tebbit is, and his blog is good value too.