Big Tory wobble this morning

Indicative graphic only - indicative of pulse rate at Conservative Campaign HQ where I hear all the Cameroons have decamped to from their Westminster offices.

The Tory lead is down to five points today, according to the Telegraph, opening up the possibility not just of a hung parliament but of Labour being the largest party by some 19 seats.

It's hard to take that kind of predicted outcome seriously, or without a wry smile at least. But,once again, the Tories should be home and dry by now and they're struggling to find the side of the pool.

It is one opinion poll and not the picture in the marginals that will decide the outcome of the election. There the Tories have spent Ashcroft's millions to ensure victory although even then some Labour bastions will refuse to fall.

But this is the kind of poll that will really put fire in the bellies of challengers and defenders in any seat that might switch. This really is going to be a battle royale of an election, intriguing to watch, and incredible to take part in.

On this read out the Tories are two wobbles and a panic away from serious trouble. Are their leadership team capable of withstanding the same kind of pressure that Brown has taken recently?

In the last eight weeks Brown has faced bullying allegations, an attempted coup, a very marginal start to the economic recovery, a relentlessly bad press and a high spending opposition advertising blitz. He is still moving forward, like a bulldozer.

Read the inside account from the Spectator to see how the Tories are beginning to sweat.