Tuesday, 4 May 2010

Reading tea leaves/polls at T minus 24

With just 32 hours to go before the polling stations open the 2010 campaign looks like going to the wire.

Wednesday's daily ComRes poll for the Independent shows party support had remained static with the Tories on 37 per cent, Labour on 29 per cent and the Lib Dems on 26 per cent. This would make the Tories the largest party but short of a majority.

This poll gives the Conservatives 294 seats - 32 short of an overall majority – Labour 251 seats and Liberal Democrats 74.

These voting intention figures are identical to figures from ComRes yesterday – the first time during the election campaign that figures have remained unchanged. Comfort there for Cameron through the night.

But in a dramatic turn around the daily Yougov poll for the Sun showed the Lib Dem bubble had burst and that Labour, although second, would be the largest party at Westminster.

The poll gave the Tories 35 per cent (no change), Labour up two to 30 per cent and the Lib Dems falling four points to 24 per cent.

This would give Labour 277 seats, the Conservatives 269 and the Lib Dems 72 MPs and leave Westminster on a knife edge on Friday morning.

Remember, though, remember something quite different could be happening in the marginal seats and take note of this.

ComRes found that a third of people admit they may change their mind about how they will vote on Thursday, with Liberal Democrat voters being more likely than supporters of the other two main parties to switch.

I'm told that there's a Yougov poll for the Scotsman but it is embargoed. When they publish it, I'll link it.

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