Sunday, 27 February 2011

Holyrood polls back on trend for Labour win

YouGov in the Sunday Herald gives Scottish Labour a commanding lead over the SNP, suggesting that the last poll that put the nationalists on course for a second term at Holyrood was a rogue result.

The poll, actually carried out for the Green Party (long gone are the days when the Herald carried out a monthly opinion poll), gave figures that are crunched to give Labour 59 out of 129 seats at Holyrood, up 13 on 2007. The SNP would get 35 (down 12), the Tories 19 (up two), the LibDems nine (down seven), the Greens six (up four), with one Independent MSP.

The SNP insist the election is wide open - too true - and this poll will make Salmond at lot less uncomfortable than Tavish Scott will be feeling.

Personally, I maintain the Lib Dem vote is already down to its core vote in the Scottish elections and that personal support and resilience will see the sitting MSPs through. But this poll looks disastrous for the Lib Dems.

Good news for the Greens, who paid for the survey, raising the possibility of them being in power with Labour, if the parliamentary arithmetic works that way.

The figures, among those certain to vote, are:

Labour 41% on the constituency vote, up 8.8% on the 2007 election.

The SNP on 32%, down 0.9%, the Conservatives 15% (down 1.6), the LibDems 8% (down 8.2%) and 4% plan to vote for other parties (up 1.9%).

In the regional votes, Labour significantly ahead, on 40% (up 10.8 points on 2007), compared to the SNP on 26% (down 5).

The Tories on 15% (up 1.1), the LibDems 7% (down 3.3), the Greens 6% (up 2), and all others 5% (down 5.6).

These figures are more on trend than the last Times poll that gave the SNP a lead. It's a long road to Holyrood though.

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