Thursday, 8 April 2010

Reuters marginals poll - Tory swing but not enough

Here's an interesting poll from Reuters in the key marginals that will decide the election.

Top line is that some 38% of voters said they would vote Conservative - up from 37% a fortnight ago. That compares to 41% who said they would vote Labour.

That represents a 5.5% swing to the Conservatives from Labour compared to the last general election in 2005. The Conservatives need a swing of 6.9 percent nationally to gain a majority in the House of Commons.

A 5.5% swing, according to the BBC swingometer, gives the Tories 301 MPs compared to Labour's 263, Lib dems on 59 and others 27.

On a universal swing it would take the Tory advance in Scotland into Ochil and South Perthshire, where Gordon Banks is campaigning like fury, and Stirling where Anne McGuire is the well-kent sitting Labour MP.

Drilling into the voter responses in these marginals is fascinating. The IPSOS Mori poll for Reuters shows that voters rate Labour leader Gordon Brown more highly than Cameron on almost all leadership measures.

However, the poll also shows nearly 60 percent of voters want a leader who represents change. Guess which party has the "time for change" slogan?

It is a dilemma that explains why the country is still on course for a hung parliament in which the Conservatives fall short of an overall majority in the 650-seat Commons.

The leaders' debates - which Cameron should walk - are going to be crucial. Some 46 percent of those polled in marginals say they may change their mind about who to vote for and 60 percent say the debates will be important in helping them decide how to vote. Hold onto your hats.

1 comment:

  1. Cameron should walk the TV debates? Most folk have that expectation making his life harder. Brown got little to lose.
    And if Nick Clegg puts in a decent performance he may attract anti-Brown votes from the Tories.