Back to school speculation

All this is speculation - and with that qualifier we're all back in Westminster, eagerly awaiting news of the first Coalition reshuffle.

Who's up who's down, will Ken Clarke walk, will Baroness Warsi wail - we just don't know yet. Looks like the prints will get a sniff for tomorrow morning and that the cards will be dealt before cabinet, the timing of which we don't know yet either.

I suspect that by Wednesday our fever will have subsided and we'll be back to worrying about economy. i also suspect that Michael Moore will still be Scottish Secretary, despite the wild, what's the word, speculation about Jo Swinson or Menzies Campbell taking his place.

In the tortoise and hare race to the referendum Moore may have failed to set the heather on fire with his rhetoric. But in a battle for reasonableness, which is where most votes lie, he sounds plain and sensible just as Salmond's excuses for not engaging with Westminster are in danger of sounding less plausible.

George Osborne, assuming he still is chancellor, is due to make a speech in Scotland on the economy later this week. As the chair of the cabinet committee deciding Coalition policy on a referendum, I dare say he'll stir it on the constitutional argument too.