Lockerbie - predictions of Megrahi's demise

In the Lockerbie releases, this from the Foreign Office in Novemember 2008.

Megrahi has outlived all predictions of his demise which, in this instance, was measuresd at two years, not three months.

Here's the par on page 67 of the report:

11. Megrahi has made an application for bail to the Scottish High Court on the grounds of (a) the slow pace of the appeal and (b) his failing health. This application will be heard on 6 November. If successful, Megrahi will be released on bail to an address in Glasgow owned by his wife. Strathclyde Police are currently carrying out a security assessment which will form part of the court's decision. The key aspect will however be Megrahi's actual prognosis, which we understand to be a 50% chance of surviving a further 18-24 months. HMG has no locus in the bail application, although we understand that it will be contested by the Crown. Our cross-Whitehall press lines reflect the fact that it is a matter for the court (Annex D).