New poll in Scotland in Scotland this morning which shows Labour on 34% compared to the SNP on 32% - a a direct reversal of the ratings in MORI’s poll of three months ago.
With this the SNP would win ten seats at the general election, three more than they have at present and better than predicted in yesterday's SoS poll. Labour, on this projection would win 37 seats — four fewer than in 2005.
No breakthrough for the Tories, who if they are lucky will get two MPs, doubling their representation in Scotland.
The Conservatives are trailing in third place on 17 per cent , according to Ipsos MORI, with the Liberal Democrats still further behind on 12 per cent. The Lib Dems would be down one seat to ten MPs.
All kinds of stats about Gordon Brown's standing in Scotland - good - and Alex Salmond's - falling. The SNP are seven points ahead in Holyrood voting intentions on 36% to Labour's 29% but we're not really concentrating on that in the immediate future.
Meanwhile The Scotsman has squeezed more data out of it's weekend poll to show that there would be more support for independence if the Conservatives win power at Westminster. According to YouGov 30% would be "more likely" to back independence in these circumstances but that kind of response has to be treated with caution.
Asked the straight question support for independence has fallen to 27%, about nine per cent in two years. John Curtice sums it up: "Support for independence remains in the doldrums"
The tower hole :-)
3 hours ago