Digested Lockerbie - the concluding paragraphs

here is Sir Gus O' Donnell's conclusion. In short, with Megrahi terminally ill the UK government (put Blair or Brown or Cameron or anyone in the chair) decided they had to spring him out of Greenock.

They arrived at this conclusion with the Libyian government promising mayhem if the prisoner died in Scotland, with MI6 telling them that, with former MI6 people who work with BP telling them that, and with all their instincts telling them that.

But the ball is not in their court, thanks to devolution and a separate Scottish legal system and the result of the 2007 Scottish election. A hostile SNP administration has to make the decision and the UK gov knows that applying pressure could result in disaster for UK strategic interests.

Here's the conclusion:


34. iv

"It is my conclusion that..once Mr Megrahi had been diagnosed with terminal cancer in September 2008, HMG policy was based upon an assessment that UK interests would be damaged if Mr Megrahi were to die in a UK jail.

The development of this view was prompted, following Mr Megrahi‟s diagnosis of terminal illness, by the extremely high priority attached to Mr Megrahi‟s return by the Libyans who had made clear that they would regard his death in Scottish custody as a death sentence and by actual and implicit threats made of severe ramifications for UK interests if Mr Megrahi were to die in prison in Scotland.

The policy was primarily motivated by a desire to build on previous success in normalising relations with Libya and to safeguard the substantial gains made in recent years, and specifically to avoid harm to UK nationals, to British commercial interests and to cooperation on security issues. The desire to see such a result developed and intensified over time as Mr Megrahi‟s health declined and the imminence of his death appeared greater;

34. v. Policy was therefore progressively developed that HMG should do all it could, whilst respecting devolved competences, to facilitate an appeal by the Libyans to the Scottish Government for Mr Megrahi‟s transfer under the PTA or release on compassionate grounds as the best outcome for managing the risks faced by the UK. This action amounted to: proceeding with ratification of the PTA; explaining to Libya in factual terms the process for application for transfer under a PTA or for compassionate release; and informing the Scottish Government that there was no legal barrier to transfer under the PTA;


34. vi. .....the former Government took great effort not to communicate to the Scottish Government its underlying desire to see Mr Megrahi released before he died. Moreover, it is clear that HMG considered that any attempts to pressurise or lobby the Scottish Government could be counter productive to achieving this outcome. Although it is likely that the Scottish Government was aware of this desire, there is no record that it was communicated or that UK interests played a part in Mr Megrahi‟s release by the Scottish Government on compassionate grounds."

Lockerbie - an "understanding" on PTA

This bit, par 14, of Sir Gus O'Donnell's report is intriguing. He states, in the usual, restrained civil service tone, that the UK government had an "understanding" that the Scottish Executive would accept the Prisoner Transfer Agreement could cover Megrahi if there was movement on airgun legislation and damages on slopping out for prisoners.

Here's the paragraph:

"14. Subsequently it is clear that HMG‟s understanding was that a PTA without any exclusions might be acceptable to the Scottish Government if progress could be made with regards to ongoing discussions relating to liabilities for damages under the Scotland Act for breaches of Human Rights (the „Somerville‟ judgment), and devolution of firearms legislation."

Kenny MacAskill's comments from yesterday make it clear that it is wrong to suggest that he sought a deal on this, or anything else. There was not an understanding but a "mis-understanding".

There is nothing in the papers to show that the Scottish government ever suggested a deal could be made over Prisoner Transfer agreement. Of course, that kind of put your pencils down moment is just not the sort of conversation that would be minuted

But why would the UK government think differently, what made UK Ministers think that the Scottish government was suggestible on this?

Lockerbie papers - the O'Donnell verdict

Scanning the Cabinet Office release of papers on Lockerbie, this seems to be the killer paragraph from cabinet secretary Sir Gus O'Donnell

"24. From the point at which HMG became aware that Mr Megrahi had been diagnosed with terminal cancer, HMG judged that UK interests would be damaged if Mr Megrahi were to die in a UK jail. Policy was therefore progressively developed that HMG should do all it could, whilst respecting devolved competences, to facilitate an appeal by the Libyans to the Scottish Government for Mr Megrahi’ s transfer under the PTA or release on compassionate grounds. Such an approach was understood across all relevant Government Departments."

Lockerbie papers release

The Cabinet Office release of the Lockerbie papers is available here: Click or press and crowd source:

• Cabinet Secretary's review of papers relating to the release of Abdelbaset Al-Megrahi

Cameron already the winner in Lockerbie paper trail

Labour government "did all it could" to secure the release of Abdul Basset al Megrahi, the man convicted of the Lockerbie bombing, according to the first leak of documents on the case.

The Daily Telegraph in Scotland seems to have had an early peek at the Lockerbie papers which are due out at 1pm today.

Here's the link to what will be a developing story during the day.

Also to whet the appetite here's the Vanity Fair piece on the Lockerbie deal which claimed that the Scottish government was willing to release Megrahi in exchange for a deal on the Scotland Act that would close down compensation claims from prisoners over slopping out.

That was met with a 24 carat quote from Kevin Pringle, the First Minister's spokesman: who describes the claim as “complete and utter garbage without a shred or scintilla of truth.”

Claim and counter-claim is what this story will be about all day long - Just Joan McAlpine and Guido Fawkes have been going hammer and tongs on the issue via Twitter all morning for no clearly discernable purpose (other than the attention, I guess).

By the time the dust and papers have settled this evening I reckon only Cameron will be the only winner.

The Prime Minister is on his feet at 3.30pm in the Commons, reporting on the European security Summit in Munich, but he will take the opportunity to condemn the release of the all over again.

He won't have to do much to sully Labour, he is ably assisted by the media narrative, and the SNP will defiantly insist that the decision was taken on compassionate and distinctly Scottish legal grounds (just as Jack Straw wanted them to).

At the time Cameron disagreed profoundly with the decision to release Megrahi. He said: "this man was convicted of murdering 270 people and he showed no compassion to them."

That's the kind of line, in the setting of the Commons chamber, that will make it to the US news networks tonight.

Cairo turning nasty - "despicable scenes" says Cam

Ach, there's Cameron with Ban Ki Moon in Downing St, speaking on the Egypt crisis. Better move to that.

Cameron says the "despicable scenes" we are seeing on television should not be repeated.

Things seem to have really kicked-off in Cairo this afternoon - that looks like a proper riot about to begin just as darkness is falling.

I spoke to the Sunday Herald's David Pratt last night who was in Amsterdam on the way to Egypt. His timing's about right, as Scotland's de facto Foreign Correspondent he has a knack of turning up at events just when they're about to get very hot. Stay safe David.

Coastguard worries get Westminster debate

I've been moving around a lot in the last week and neglecting the blogsite. Apologies.

After filing the Record front page story on the downed Tornado in the Minch last Thursday I found myself the very next day in Stornoway where concern about the loss of the coastguard station is running high.

The Tornado downing was just too symbolic an event to miss. A jet from a base threatened with closure; the ejected crew picked up by a copter being bundled into a PFI package; the rescue co-ordinated from RAF Kinloss which will close; handled by Stornoway coastguard station which is under threat of closure; assisted by a coastguard tug that is being withdrawn from service. Welcome to the world of coalition cuts.

The coastguard closures are being debated by MPs in Westminster Hall right now, the first time they've had an opportunity to address the subject, although Angus MacNeil has laid questions and made points of order on the issue.

Katy Clark, Labour, North Ayrshire and Arran, is speaking just now, in a debate sponsored by Truro and Falmouth Tory MP Sarah Newton.