A polecat writes, and Tories outspun again

Do read Lord Tebbit's venomous blog on Lord Ashcroft before the week is out. The "semi-house trained" polecat continues to amuse and amaze with his hostility to Cam's Conservatives. He obviously loathes his fellow peer, the Lord Ashcroft.

It's been a long political day,from Blair's book to the SNP's licence fee strop, but I bet it's felt far longer for the birthday boy, Michael Ashcroft.

The Conservatives failed again to blow out the 64 fizzing dynamite sticks under the Ashcroft donations. They undoubtedly have a point about Labour hypocrisy on the issue of non-doms but they can't get their story across as effectively as Labour's narrative of rich, privileged Tories assuming that they can buy a general election.

The reason is simple. The Tories keep putting their spin doctors (good ones) to bad use, asking them to nudge journalists towards right wing comment sites. It's pretty ineffective, deploying bloggers as proxy attack dogs, although some of the poison inevitably drips into the mainstream media.

Labour, I noticed this week and last, just don't mess around when it comes to bare fist fighting. Word goes out that Mandelson is heading for the studios and we wait and watch, like war correspondents on the edge of a free fire zone, as has he delivers another devastating blow. The old phrase from home, "Eadar an dha shuil" - between the two eyes - effectively invokes the style and the effect.

When it's not Mandy it's Prescott or Johnson or, if they want to wound, a "more in sorrow than in anger" Darling. The Tories seem reluctant to put their money where their bruised lips ought to be - punching back against the other side's stories. This evening they were huddled, like characters in vampire movie, praying for dawn and Brown's appearance at the Chilcot inquiry to melt away the nightmare.

By rights there ought to be some kind of freelance Conservative Ned Kelly gang of MPs, firing off quotes and beating up on Brown. But I don't know if they've got anyone 'ard enough to lead a gang unless Bagpuss Ken Clarke rides to the rescue.

Much more this will Ashcroft story will contaminate the Cameron brand beyond Westminster tube station, which is its current penetration level.

From tonight's Channel 4 marginal poll it seems as if Ashcroft's £5.1 million hasn't been entirely wasted - the Tories are still ahead in the key seats that will decide the election - but only by two points. That's a bad slip, two per cent in a marginal constituency is a good sitting MP's personal vote. Some Labour seats will survive the outgoing tide.

Still, nine weeks tonight before the only poll that counts closes. A lot of shifting sand before then but from the signs of the tightening polls it's evident that something is moving out there.

Michael Foot - a life woven into Labour history

Obituary for the Daily Record 04/03/10

Michael Foot, one of the great figures of the 20th century Labour movement, has died at the age of 96.

A lifelong campaigner for peace and socialism, Michael Foot led the Labour Party for three years in the early 1980s during one of the most turbulent periods in its history.

A natural left-wing rebel, he was more at home campaigning for causes he held dear that trying to control an "unleadable" Labour party in the 80s. But although he failed terribly in the electoral cauldron his plain, unfashionable refusal to compromise his principles drew respect from across the political spectrum.

Against an ascendant Margaret Thatcher Foot's Labour party lurched leftwards and senior figures broke away to form their own party, the SDP. His Plymouth connection ensured he supported the Falklands War, against his party's instincts, and he suffered a humiliating defeat in the 1983 election and quit as leader shortly afterwards.

But he lived to see his protege Neil Kinnock take on the hard left and witnessed the transformation of the Labour party into an three-term election winning machine under Tony Blair and Gordon Brown.

The Prime Minister led the tributes, describing Foot as a “man of deep principle and passionate idealism”. Mr Brown said: “He was an indomitable figure who always stood up for his beliefs and whether people agreed with him or not they admired his character and his steadfastness.

“The respect he earned over a long life of service means that, across our country today, people, no matter their political views, will mourn the passing of a great and compassionate man.”

Foot died shortly before 7am at his home in Hampstead, north London. He had been ill for some time and had been receiving 24-hour care.

Born into a Liberal West Country family in 1914, one of four talented brothers, Foot’s life was woven into the history of the left in the 20th Century.

After witnessing poverty in Liverpool he joined Labour in the 1930s and worked as a journalist for left-wing journals the New Statesman and Tribune. He knew George Orwell, supported Republican Spain against rising European Fascism and decried Tory appeasement of Hitler.

Excused from war service he co-wrote “The Guilty Men”, attacking Chamberlain and the Tories before being appointed editor of the Evening Standard by the publishing magnate and fellow mischief maker, Lord Beaverbrook, in 1942.

He entered Parliament in 1945 in Clement Atlee’s Labour landslide. He held Nye Bevan, the founder of the National Health Service and subject of one of his many biographies, as his hero.

With his tremendous oratory skill Foot went on to become a great hero of the left himself, championing nuclear disarmament as a founding member of CND. He met with the Soviet leadership at the height of the Cold War and campaigned against British membership of the European Economic Community in the 1975 referendum.

Tony Benn, his cabinet colleague and occasional nemesis,said: “He was one of the great figures of the Labour movement. I know he did not win the election, but the fact that he became leader and fought the election puts him in the top list of figures in the history of the party.

Foot first became MP for Plymouth Devonport in 1945 - which explains his demand for a taskforce to sail for the Falklands that Saturday morning parliament convened to debate the crisis - and went to become MP for Ebbw Vale and Blaenau Gwent. He was employment secretary under Harold Wilson and went on to become leader of the Commons between 1976 and the 1979 general election.

At heart he was a writer more than a politician and his passion for books, and for
Plymouth Argyle, never dimmed as old age took its toll

His election as leader in 1980, following Labour’s defeat at the hands of Margaret Thatcher, saw the Labour almost torn apart by infighting, the SDP split and infiltration by Trotskyist Militants.

Gerald Kaufman famously described the 1983 party manifesto“the longest suicide note in history” and Foot was forced to quit as leader when Labour suffered its heaviest election defeat in 50 years, with just 27% of the vote.

Baroness Thatcher, who faced Mr Foot in many fiery clashes across the despatch box in the House of Commons, said she was “very sorry to her the news” of his death. In a statement released by her office, Lady Thatcher said: “He was a great Parliamentarian and a man of high principles.”

Lord Healey, who served as Foot’s deputy, also paid tribute. He said: “I was a great admirer of Michael’s. He was a brilliant speaker. Although we disagreed very much over policy, I was very glad to serve under him as deputy leader. I don’t think he should be remembered only for the 1983 election defeat, because he made a tremendous contribution to the Labour Party when its future was on a knife edge.”

Despite his brilliance as a speaker and his undoubted intelligence Foot did not possess the cruel instinct required for leadership. His shambolic, academic appearance, combined with the party's self-destructive mood rendered him unelectable.

The right wing press savaged Foot as party leader. He was viciously traduced for wearing what was described as a donkey jacket at a Cenotaph remembrance ceremony. It was, in fact, a fairly smart car coat and his wife Jill Craigie was deeply upset by the smear. Later, he successfully sued the Sunday Times over allegations that he had been a KGB agent.

Although his appearance might have been mocked, his command of an audience inside and outside the Commons was famed. TUC general secretary Brendan Barber said: “Simply to mention his name is to be taken back to an era when every politician needed to be an orator and command an audience.”

He was succeeded as Labour leader by Neil Kinnock, who took on the hard left and sowed the seeds of New Labour. Lord Kinnock, hailed him as a man of “courage and generosity of spirit and action” who saved the party's soul.

Lord Kinnock said : “He was letting himself into purgatory in becoming leader of the Labour Party in its darkest, grimmest hour. But if he hadn’t done it, I don’t think Labour would have survived as a political force, It was Michael’s courage and utter commitment to the cause of the party which enabled the party to continue in recognisable existence and to fight and win another day.”

Exhibiting the kind of solidarity the old Labour party inherited from the communist movement Foot never once criticised the three-term Labour government while Tony Blair was in office.

Though he might have disagreed profoundly with Blair he once told a dinner guest, no leader of the Labour party can do any wrong.

John Prescott said Foot was “the heart of our movement” and Alastair Campbell, whose wife Fiona Millar was a family friend of the Foots, said he should also be remembered as a “lovely man”.

He said: “Fiona went with Neil Kinnock to see him recently. She came away sensing he did not have that long to live. But at least he was still in his own home, the one he shared for so long with his wife Jill Craigie, and still surrounded by his books and his memories.”

Conservative leader David Cameron said Foot was a “very intelligent, witty, amusing and thoughtful man” adding: “ I’m obviously not old enough to have been in the House of Commons at the same time, but reading some of his speeches, (they) were incredibly powerful.”

First Minister Alex Salmond said he was held in highest regard across the political spectrum over many decades. “Michael Foot was a man of enormous principle, with a political career founded on a passion and commitment to the party and causes he loved. He was a remarkable and dedicated man My thoughts are with his many friends, colleagues and family. Michael Foot will be greatly missed, and his memory treasured by his party and the country.”

Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg described Michael Foot as a great parliamentarian, a great intellectual and a great idealist. “He always stood up for what he believed in, even if that meant inviting unpopularity at times. His intellectual integrity is an example to everyone in politics.”

Michael Foot 1913 - 2010

Michael Foot, in full flow, speaking in defence of the Daily Mirror, which had criticised the conduct of the war by the Churchill Government.

Jack Straw has just announced the death of one of the great figures of the Labour movement to the House of Commons.

Founder of CND, leader of the Labour Party in the dark days of the 1980s, Foot was also an outstanding journalist who edited the Evening Standard and the Tribune twice.As a writer, and as an orator, few could match him

He was one of the towering political figures of 20th century British politics but he was much diminished by having to lead Labour during one of the most tumultuous periods in the party's history.

Being a journalist didn't defend him from the ravages of a nasty right wing press, and particularly the myth that he wore a donkey jacket to the memorial service at the Cenotaph.

Jill Craigie, his wife, was very upset by the accusation. It was a perfectly good jacket but Foot had the ability to look dishevelled in anything.

TV debates - numbing voters to the ballots

Count them - I have and I make it eight full-length television debates being broadcast in Scotland during the general election campaign.

Because separate arrangements have to be made for Wales and Scotland to give the nationalist parties a fair go viewers in these countries are being given an extra treat of double the political viewing time of people in England.

That could total 12 hours of repetitive mind-numbing, sorry crucial, political huffing and puffing before being allowed to put a cross in the box.

The SNP is complaining that it is being excluded from the debates. There must be more votes to be won in campaigning for fewer debates.

Here's that list in full:

Three x leaders debates on ITV, BBC and Sky

Three x Scottish leaders debates on STV, BBC Scotland and Sky

Two x proposed Treasury (Darling vs Osborne) and Business (Mandy vs Clarke)

Viewers will be sleep-walking into the voting booths after that.

But wait, I have to suffer for my language too. The BBC have just confirmed that they hope to stage a Gaelic debate on BBC Alba too. That's nine debates to be endured.

A tale of two polls - five and seven point gaps

We're all in danger of going poll mad. Two new ones tonight.

ComRes for the Independent - Con 37 (-1), Lab 32 (+1)

YouGov for the Sun - Con 39 (+4), Lab 32 (-3)

The first, Comres for the Independent, gives the Tories a five point lead but that would still leave Labour as the largest party

It's the narrowest margin in the monthly ComRes poll for The Independent since December 2008.

The figures, if the election were held tomorrow, would give Labour 294 seats, the Tories 277, the Liberal Democrats 46 and others 33.

Labour would still be 32 seats short of a majority and would have to rely on the Liberal Democrats for support in a hung parliament.

A YouGov poll for the Sun shows the Tories with a seven point lead. The same polling organisation showed a two point gap between the parties on Sunday, with the Tories on 37% and Labour on 35%.

Labour won in 2005 with just over 35% of the vote but the Tories only managed 30% and the Lib Dems a bit over 9% in that outing.

The SNP have been on pointing out that their reversal of fortune in the Ipsos/Mori poll for the Scotsman is actually a huge improvement on their standing at the 2005 election.

Here's their read out of Westminster voting intentions (change since 2005 General Election in brackets):

Lab: 34% (-6)

SNP: 32% (+14)

Con: 17% (+1)

Lib Dem: 12% (-11)

Other: 5%

Enough figures for one night.

Snap election? Will someone please decide

The ebb and flow of Ministers from Downing Street this lunchtime is being dismissed as just a regular Monday meeting of cabinet ministers - not a rushed roundtable to trigger the start of a snap election campaign.

Westminster is a bit tense because this is the last possible day that Brown could call a March 25th poll.

Going to the palace today would leave 17 working days (excluding the Northern Ireland Bank Holiday for St Patrick's Day) before an election. That's the minimum notice necessary under parliamentary rules.

We're all a bit dubious in the Lobby about anything really happening. It would, after all, require a decision to be made and Mr Brown is not famous for making these in a hurry.

Another Scottish opinion poll, tighter this time

New poll in Scotland in Scotland this morning which shows Labour on 34% compared to the SNP on 32% - a a direct reversal of the ratings in MORI’s poll of three months ago.

With this the SNP would win ten seats at the general election, three more than they have at present and better than predicted in yesterday's SoS poll. Labour, on this projection would win 37 seats — four fewer than in 2005.

No breakthrough for the Tories, who if they are lucky will get two MPs, doubling their representation in Scotland.

The Conservatives are trailing in third place on 17 per cent , according to Ipsos MORI, with the Liberal Democrats still further behind on 12 per cent. The Lib Dems would be down one seat to ten MPs.

All kinds of stats about Gordon Brown's standing in Scotland - good - and Alex Salmond's - falling. The SNP are seven points ahead in Holyrood voting intentions on 36% to Labour's 29% but we're not really concentrating on that in the immediate future.

Meanwhile The Scotsman has squeezed more data out of it's weekend poll to show that there would be more support for independence if the Conservatives win power at Westminster. According to YouGov 30% would be "more likely" to back independence in these circumstances but that kind of response has to be treated with caution.

Asked the straight question support for independence has fallen to 27%, about nine per cent in two years. John Curtice sums it up: "Support for independence remains in the doldrums"