Poll weather in Scotland..outlook the same

Some encouraging poll figures for Brown out of Scotland too where the SNP has fallen a full 17 percentage points behind Labour on voting intentions for the Westminster election and is now just a single point ahead of the Conservatives.

The Scotland on Sunday YouGov poll of 1,000 Scots has Labour has 38 per cent, the SNP has 21 per cent, the Conservatives have 20 per cent, while the Lib Dems have 15 per cent.

At Holyrood, the SNP is down by the same amount based against a comparable YouGov poll in November. On the constituency vote, Labour has 33 per cent, the SNP has 28 per cent, while the Tories and the Lib Dems are locked on 16 per cent.

The Westminster seat projections from these percentages mean that the picture would remain broadly the same in Scotland - Labour 40, SNP 7, Tories 1 and Lib Dems 11. There won’t be a uniform swing, of course and there could be some seat swapping for the parties to end up back where they started.

Nonetheless the status quo would spell a huge success for Labour and a big disappointment for the Tories, who have to win another in England for every one they don't gain in Scotland.

The SNP put a brave face on the results after what was a relentlessly bad few weeks for the party in the media. They think there's a better poll on the way tomorrow morning which others have paid for so I won't break their embargo.